Week 11 Recap

The future of the NFL was on full display last night, with the Chiefs and Rams squaring off in one of the most exciting games in NFL history. The Chiefs became the first team in NFL history to put up 50 points...and lose. The Rams won 54-51 in what many are calling a Super Bowl preview.

Do I think the game will be a Super Bowl preview? Absolutely not. Neither team has the defense to win games in January. Both teams abandoned the run game, as Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley combined to contribute 6 of the game's 105 points. Sure, the offenses played well. But the game was sloppy and turnovers were plentiful.

The Real Super Bowl Favorite

Once again, the New Orleans Saints, who dethroned last year's champion Philadelphia Eagles 48-7, look unstoppable. The game was shocking to me, as Carson Wentz played horribly and the now 4-6 Eagles looked completely lost. Meanwhile, New Orleans broke the 45-point threshold for the third week in a row, spreading the love to Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram as usual. 

My main takeaway from that game is that Drew Brees is the clear-cut favorite to be the NFL's MVP. Brees threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions, which really isn't surprising at this point. Through 10 games, he has thrown one interception. One! Aaron Rodgers has only thrown one as well, but Brees' passer rating of 126.9 (which would be the greatest passer rating of all time by a wide margin) greatly exceeds Rodgers' mark of 102.2.

Sure, you don't want to peak in Week 11, but the Saints are simply dominant on both sides of the ball. They have given up 21 points in the past two weeks even with much of the game being played in garbage time. Barring any significant injuries, the Saints are going to be a tough out for any team.

The Rest of the NFC

The Bears took control in the NFC North with yet another stellar defensive performance, scoring a defensive touchdown and keeping Kirk Cousins in check in a 25-20 victory. They probably have the best defense in the NFL, which, in my book, makes them a bigger threat to the Saints than the Rams.

Those three teams have asserted themselves at the top of the conference, but what will happen to the remaining teams is anyone's guess. With the Vikings falling to 5-4-1 and the Panthers shockingly losing to the Lions, anyone can take the two Wild Cards spots. The Redskins, Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks, Falcons, Packers, and Lions are all still in the mix.

With Alex Smith's season-ending leg injury, the Redskins are looking much less like a contender. They still lead the NFC East by a game, but they are a much easier out for the Cowboys, who play the Redskins on Thanksgiving. With a win, the Cowboys would take first place in the decision. Washington still has to play the Eagles twice, which gives Philadelphia a legitimate chance to make it back into the playoff picture.

As for the other Wild Cards, Seattle is a hot pick to claim the sixth seed. The offensive line, the team's biggest weakness a year ago, is playing lights-out, as Seattle has the top rushing offense in the league. Russell Wilson has a terrible receiving corps but is figuring it out, getting Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett more involved. While probably not a Super Bowl contender, Seattle is making it work. With an easy schedule for the remainder of the season, I see them claiming the fifth seed.

The last Wild Card spot, in my book, comes down to Minnesota and Carolina, who both have tough schedules to close out the season. Carolina has two showdowns with the Saints, while the Vikings play the Patriots, Bears, and Packers to close out the season. As much as I want to see the Vikings in the playoffs, the rushing game isn't getting the job done. I think Carolina will figure it out in time to sneak in as the sixth seed.

The AFC

With Kansas City's loss, you would think the Chargers would actually have a shot to claim the conference's top seed. However, Los Angeles choked away a game against Denver, losing 23-22 on a last-second field goal. The Chargers can still win the division by winning at Arrowhead Stadium and with another Kansas City loss, but it's a lot less likely at this point. Kansas City should still be in position to win the division and claim a bye.

The Chiefs almost gained ground on Pittsburgh, but the Steelers emerged from Duval County with a clutch 20-16 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The wildly inconsistent Ben Roethlisberger shook off an atrocious first half en route to a game-winning rushing touchdown and a 16-point comeback. The Steelers won their sixth straight and are still in second place in the conference.

New England has an easy schedule through the rest of the season, with four games against its weak divisional foes mixed in with two challenging games against Pittsburgh and Minnesota. New England's showdown with the Steelers will be critical; if the Patriots lose in the Steel City, they might fail to claim a first-round bye for the first time since 2009. 

Another emerging threat for a bye is the Texans, who eked out a win over Washington to win their seventh straight game. With Demaryius Thomas replacing Will Fuller IV, the Texans are still set on offense as Deshaun Watson is playing nearly as well as he was before tearing his ACL in the middle of last season. 

I predicted the Chargers to make the Super Bowl, and I'm going to stand by that pick. However, the emergence of Houston makes it a lot harder for that to happen if the Chargers don't win the division. Los Angeles would have to win in Houston, in Kansas City, and in New England or Pittsburgh, which is a tough task. They have a running game, a defense, and a veteran quarterback. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a 2011 New York Giants-esque run through the AFC.

The last Wild Card spot is up for grabs, and many teams have a shot to claim it. Cincinnati, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Miami are 5-5, with Denver still in the mix at 4-6. I'd love to see the Colts, who have won four straight, make it, and I think they have the offense to get the job done especially with Frank Reich doing a magnificent coaching job. However, my favorite would probably be the well-coached Ravens, who won an impressive game over Cincinnati last week.

But as a Broncos fan, I feel obligated to say not to count out the Broncos. Denver plays Oakland, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Cincinnati plus Pittsburgh and Los Angeles. With wins in the four easier games and one win against the tougher two teams, Denver could legitimately sneak in at 9-7. It's not likely, but it's also not crazy. Go Broncos!