Conference Championship Chatter

I'm gonna start with Baltimore and Kansas City, because I actually might have more to say on this topic than on my beloved 49ers. There are a number of nerd nuggets (thanks to Jake Marsh from Pardon My Take) that absolutely astound me when it comes to this game.

Theme 1: Patrick Mahomes

  • Mahomes has more playoff wins than Aaron Rodgers. He has as many as Brett Favre and Big Ben. If he wins Super Bowl 58, he will not only break the curse of the Super Bowl logo, but he will also pass the likes of Peyton Manning and Steve Young to reach 3rd all time in playoff wins. He's 28!
  • This is the first time Kansas City hasn't hosted the AFC Championship Game since 2017! The Chiefs will have played five opponents - New England, Tennessee, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and now Baltimore, in those six years. New England rattled off seven straight appearances from 2011-2017 and won four. Mahomes has already won three.
  • Mahomes, as a starter, has never not been to the AFC Championship Game before.
  • Since 2018, when Mahomes decisively won his first playoff game and lost a heartbreaking AFC Championship Game track meet (he scored 24 points on his last four drives, only sacrificing 4 because time ran out in regulation), he has won 2+ playoff games every season.
More due credit to PMT for informing this next thought stream - but he's won every which way with every type of supporting cast. In 2019, he lit up the scoreboard, averaging 39 PPG in 3 playoff wins and throwing deep ball after deep ball to Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. When he was challenged in the Super Bowl by a stout 49er defense, he responded after throwing 2 interceptions - connecting on two crucial fourth-quarter deep balls. Oh - and they trailed by 10+ in all 3 of their playoff wins, including a 24-point deficit in the Divisional Round.

In 2022, he didn't have Tyreek anymore and didn't have a fully functional ankle. But he had Travis Kelce playing better than ever and just enough efficiency to move the Chiefs to 24 points on their last 4 Super Bowl drives - just like in the 2018 AFC Championship Game, but with a better result.

In 2023, he has a horrific supporting cast of industry plants like Kadarius Toney. But he has Rashee Rice finally figuring it out and Travis Kelce finally getting into playoff mode. The Chiefs were god-awful in December, letting the Raiders score as many points on defense as they scored on offense in a Christmas Day stinker. They look just fine now.

The ability for the Chiefs to evolve over this six-year stretch is terrifying - because it's exactly how New England operated for 20 years. The Chiefs did it with a gunslinging, electrifying deep-ball offense in Mahomes' first two years - but the defense wasn't great. Now, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the league - one that has shown up thus far in allowing just 15.5 PPG in two playoff games.

What is perhaps most impressive about both the Patriots and the Chiefs is how they've prevented so many other talented players from getting theirs. Peyton and Big Ben finally got their two rings, and even Joe Flacco slipped through the cracks. But Steve McNair, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Rich Gannon, and Tim Tebow are among the many elite quarterbacks who never overcame number 12 in New England.

Now, the AFC is littered with quarterbacks - arguably the best seven in the league. Yet Justin Herbert can't get past number 15 in the AFC West. Josh Allen - in spite of unbelievable performances against Kansas City - has been booted by the Chiefs in three of the last four seasons. Mahomes has met his match in Joe Burrow - but got the last laugh in the 2022 AFC Championship Game.

So now enter a new challenger - Lamar Jackson. I talked a bit about the Ravens in my last post about Cleveland - using Baltimore as the literary foil to the Browns' misery. Some nuggets:
  • The Ravens have won two Super Bowls with two elite quarterbacks - Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer - without hosting an AFC Championship Game in playoff history.
  • While the Browns suffered a 26-year playoff drought from 1994 to 2020, the Ravens had the greatest defense of all time and a Super Bowl ring within five years of existence.
  • The Ravens have 17 playoff wins since 2000 - more than Kansas City and more than any team besides New England
Historical analogies form the basis of my thinking for this game - and they inform me that the Ravens will win. The franchise's identity has come full-circle once again - an elite quarterback (Dilfer, Flacco, Lamar) and the best defense in football.

In all seriousness, it is wild how the Ravens went from Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs to Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Justin Madubuike, and Patrick Queen. It's been 23 years since the 2000 Ravens decimated NFL offenses, but the pedigree has traveled from generation to generation. These guys obviously haven't earned the same reputation. Perhaps they'll move a step closer on Sunday.

I recently watched "The Band That Wouldn't Die," the 30 for 30 on the old Baltimore Colts team band that tirelessly petitioned for a new team from 1984 to 1996. The city, much like Cleveland, had scars. But it finally got its team. From day 1, the Ravens went to work crafting an identity of 1970s physicality with 2000s athleticism. Johnny Unitas, for all his greatness as a Baltimore Colt, certainly never led teams with that identity. It uniquely belongs to the Ravens.

McNair, Gannon, Luck, and Manning - the same elite quarterbacks mentioned earlier who didn't get theirs because of Brady - all got stifled by the Bullies of Baltimore in the playoffs of their two Super Bowl championship campaigns. Even Brady could only muster a measly 13 points - at home - in a 2012 AFC Championship loss to Baltimore.

Brady was susceptible to pressure up the middle - and when those 2012 Ravens, 2013 Broncos, and 2015 Broncos brought it, he lost. For all Brady's greatness - 34 playoff wins, 7 rings, 10 conference championship wins - he did lose four conference championship games, three of them at the hands of Peyton. Maybe Lamar (or Burrow) will have that effect on number 15. Star Chiefs guard Joe Thuney will either not play or play injured. Mahomes will find himself running for his life on more than one occasion Sunday - just like C.J. Stroud did last Saturday. Just like he did against Tampa Bay in Super Bowl 55, he'll find a way to make a few heroic plays. But it won't be enough. 

Ultimately, even Tom Brady couldn't break the Madden curse in 2018. So why will Mahomes break the Super Bowl logo / iHeart radio curse?


Now onto the other side of the curse - a broken one in Detroit, but a new one about to begin. Jared Goff has been fantastic this season, and Dan Campbell ('s Chunky) has been the perfect solution to a city's hunger that just won't quit. The Lions deserve to be here - and they will present a challenge on Sunday.

But there are days when the San Francisco offense just can't be stopped, and Sunday will be one of them. Kyle Shanahan(ded) the Lions 41 points the last time these two teams met. The Lions are far better, but the defense is still shaky. Deebo is playing. CMC is playing. Trent is playing. Purdy is playing. E-40 will be watching. Everything is in place for the Niner Gang.

Detroit will score - they have the best wide receiver group out of the remaining teams. But in spite of the Ambry Thomas debacle of January 20, the Niners defense actually held up pretty well - albeit by a thread on a few red zone situations. Detroit will score. The Niners will score more.

I honestly don't have too much else to say. I'm biased, but I'm confident. San Francisco's last few home playoff games have gone swimmingly - they have won six straight dating back to Colin Kaepernick running roughshod over the Packer defense in 2012. Weird vibes were in the air last Saturday, but the Niners transcended demons of the past. This will also be a test, but it will be the least daunting of the three. 

That moniker goes to the Baltimore Birdies, who will await Purdy in two weeks in the rematch screenwriter Goodell has wanted all season long. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Script - That Is, the Revised Script - Had This Super Bowl Matchup All Along

Image
Screenwriter Goodell has done it again! It's admittedly not the script I saw written in the stars - or rather in the combination of the NFL's Super Bowl logo and a Memphis radio station's (now) false advertising. The best explanation is that not even Goodell could have foreseen the Taylor Swift effect - and called in the cast midseason to push the Chiefs' Super Bowl hangover back one more year at Baltimore's expense. When the Harbaugh family threatened to sue, he called in a favor to the NCAA - and Jalen Milroe - to have Jim pocket the family's due 2023 ring. And then, to give big bro the upper hand, inflicted Jim with the worst curse in all of sports - that of the LA Chargers. Equilibrium is restored. It looked like the revised script was about to bring the 49ers down too in favor of the bookended schedule Super Bowl that Jake Marsh wanted to see so badly - the same kickoff game and championship game matchup. The thought crossed my mind as a minor consolation i
Read more

Taking My Talents Back to Baily's Sports and Stuff...And My Thoughts on Al Davis vs the NFL

I've recently gotten captivated by the practice of journaling - generally on my own thoughts that I notice and how I feel at various moments. This has been a transformative practice in my personal life in enabling me to be more honest with myself (which is really hard!) - whether that be about discomfort I feel, what conditions provide a state of flow, or anything in between. The ability to document my life on paper - and go back and read what resonated with me at a particular point in time - has been a similarly great practice for me. Recently, the excitement of playoff football and midseason basketball has led to me pursuing a similar practice in my personal journal - airing out thoughts on sports ranging from stats I've tried to memorize to my (often unwanted) psychological analysis on a given athlete / situation. I love the process of putting pen to paper, and plan to continue this in my personal life.  But when it comes to sports, I had the thought that maybe there's n
Read more

A's Fall To White Sox On Walk-Off Home Run

Image
In late innings, the Oakland Athletics are almost unstoppable. However, Jordan Danks found a way to stop the A's. Danks hit a home run to right with two outs in the ninth to propel the White Sox to a 4-3 win over the A's. Both teams are competing in the AL Wild Card race, so the loss is crucial for the A's, who received a solid outing from Brandon McCarthy in his return from the DL. McCarthy allowed three earned runs in six-plus innings pitched, and the two teams were tied after seven innings. Both teams received solid efforts from the bullpen, but the White Sox triumphed at the end. Dayan Viciedo, A.J Pierzynski and Alexi Ramirez also homered, all taking advantage of mistakes by McCarthy. McCarthy gave Ramirez a meatball in the fourth, and he hit it deep to left field. Viciedo and Pierzynski both hit outside pitches into the seats for the White Sox. With the game tied at three, submariner Pat Neshek delivered a pitch. Catcher George Kottaras wanted it away, but Nes
Read more