Week 10 NFL/Fantasy Football Recap

The New England Patriots lost, so Week 10 was a great week to be an NFL fan. However, while the Patriots lost, the other top dogs of the NFL prevailed. The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams finally emerged victorious in ugly games, while the New Orleans Saints staked their claim as the kings of the NFL.

NFC Overview

The Saints stomped the 5-3 Cincinnati Bengals 51-14 to retain the top spot in the NFC. Drew Brees broke Brett Favre's mark of 508 career touchdown passes, putting himself in second place all time in career passing touchdowns. He threw three and ran for one on Sunday.

If you have someone on that New Orleans offense, consider yourself lucky. Ingram, Kamara, Brees and Thomas all put up phenomenal fantasy numbers. Ingram broke 100 yards rushing and caught a touchdown, Thomas caught two touchdowns, and Kamara ran for two. The Saints didn't have Dez Bryant, but they clearly didn't miss him.

The Saints are still technology a half-game behind the Rams, who eked out a victory over the Seahawks on Sunday. While Jared Goff and the offense are still stellar, the defense can't seem to hold opponents out of the end zone. They gave up 31 to Seattle a week after surrendering 45 to the Saints.

Still, with a 9-1 record and a season sweep of the Seahawks under their belt, the Rams have all but locked up the NFC West and a first-round bye. The Rams and Saints are far and away the top two teams in the conference, but a third is slowly emerging in the midwest.

The Chicago Bears dominated the Detroit Lions on Sunday, with Mitchell Trubisky putting up arguably his best performance yet. Trubisky threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns on 30 attempts, posting a fantastic 148.6 passer rating on the day. As a season-long Trubisky hater, I must say I was impressed watching him play today and seeing how he uses his mobility to his advantage. With Khalil Mack and a defense reminiscent of another great Bears defense, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears contend in January.

At 6-3, the Bears are currently tied with Washington for the third-best record in the NFC. Washington's defense shined on Sunday, intercepting Ryan Fitzpatrick four times. With Philadelphia currently tied with the Cowboys, Washington is looking like a legitimate favorite to win the NFC East. It's about time Alex Smith has something go his way.

As for the Wild Cards, the Packers stayed in contention with a 31-12 victory over Brock Osweiler and the reeling Dolphins. Aaron Jones had the best game of his career, running for 145 as Mike McCarthy finally decided to roll with him instead of the ineffective Jamaal Williams. Rodgers was unspectacular but efficient in throwing for 199 yards and two touchdowns.

Seattle and Atlanta both fell to 4-5, but on different terms. Seattle competed with the Rams for 60 minutes, while the Falcons looked sluggish against the Cleveland Browns. Both are still Wild Card contenders, but they missed out on good opportunities to improve their standing in the conference. Minnesota (5-3-1) and Carolina (6-3), who both didn't play Sunday, are still the favorites to round out the playoff picture.

NFC Playoff Predictions

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Washington
5. Chicago Bears
6. Carolina Panthers


AFC Overview

The Chiefs are the big winners of the day even though they were unimpressive in a 26-14 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. They gained a game over the Patriots, who lost 34-10 to the Tennessee Titans. Even though New England has the head-to-head tiebreaker, Kansas City's two-game lead vaults them into prime position to secure the top seed in the conference. However, the Chiefs still aren't guaranteed to get a home playoff game (i.e. they might not even win their own division). More on that later.

With New England's loss, Pittsburgh takes the second seed at 6-2-1. On Thursday night, the Steelers were sharp in a 52-21 thrashing of Carolina. Ben Roethlisberger threw five touchdowns in one of the finest outings of his career. The Steelers can be a head-scratching team at times, but on Thursday, they looked absolutely phenomenal.

As for the fourth seed, the Houston Texans were on bye. But the AFC playoff picture got a bit clearer with the Titans winning to improve to 5-4. Tennessee and Cincinnati are currently tied for the final wild card spot, as the Dolphins dropped to 5-5 and are no longer looking like a playoff contender.

With Derrick Henry finding the end zone and Corey Davis finally emerging onto the scene with 157 yards and a touchdown, Tennessee could be a legitimate threat. The Texans are in good shape after trading for Demaryius Thomas, but the AFC South divisional race could be a fun one to monitor as the season winds down.

Don't count out the Indianapolis Colts, who beat Jacksonville 29-26 for their third straight victory. Andrew Luck probably has a broken back from carrying the team for nine games, but he's hanging in there and is about as healthy as a quarterback could possibly be considering the caliber of his supporting cast.

The top AFC wild card spot right now is firmly in the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers, who still could claim the conference's top seed with a victory over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Los Angeles, after losing to the Rams and the Chiefs early in the season, has won seven straight games. It wasn't all pretty in a 20-6 win over the Oakland Raiders, but it was enough for my preseason pick to win the AFC.

AFC Playoff Predictions

1. Los Angeles Chargers
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New England Patriots
4. Houston Texans
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Tennessee Titans

Super Bowl Prediction

My preseason pick was the Saints over the Chargers, and I'm going to stick with that for the time being. Neither New Orleans nor L.A. has lost since Week 3, and both have proven lately than they have the defenses to hold up in January.

Fantasy Football Fallout

The big winner of the week is Aaron Jones, who not only played well but clearly established himself as the top running back in Green Bay. Jones got 15 carries while Jamaal Williams only had three (for three yards). He's certainly in the RB1 discussion going forward and should be started each and every week.

Nick Chubb is not only getting a lot of carries, he's making something out of them. Chubb ran for 176 yards and a 92-yard touchdown on 20 carries, breaking the Browns single season record for longest touchdown run. Chubb is the clear workhorse back in Cleveland and is also a fringe RB1 going forward.

I was impressed to see Corey Davis and Allen Robinson break out, but I don't think it's a sign of what's to come. Trubisky has always managed to exclude Robinson from his star performances, finding Trey Burton, Tarik Cohen, and Anthony Miller while also somehow managing to run for what seems like 200 yards per game. As for the Titans, their offense is too inconsistent. Marcus Mariota is 28th in the league in passing yards, and his games where he throws for 100 yards and Davis has 10 yards make Davis hard to start.

Leonard Fournette got the workload with 24 carries and the receiving touchdown to make his day respectable, but he did not look good running for only 2.2 yards per carry. With T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde in that backfield and with Fournette as injury prone as ever, I would look to trade him while his value is somewhat high.

LeSean McCoy is another back who I'd sell high. In the three weeks prior to this game, he had run for 24 yards...on 24 carries. He ran for 113 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, but so could I against the New York Jets defense. Don't expect anything out of that inconsistent Bills offense going forward.

David Johnson looked really good, running for 98 yards on 21 carries and catching a touchdown. Even though Arizona was trailing for most of the game, the Cardinals didn't abandon the run. That's an encouraging sign going forward. You want Johnson on your team.

Julio Jones was finally targeted in the red zone, which is a great sign going forward. He caught his second touchdown in two weeks (this one on a play designed to get him in the end zone from close out). He also had 107 receiving yards even in Atlanta's loss. He is starting to look like a top-five receiver again.

If you have any fantasy football questions or just want to hear me ramble about it for an hour, tune in to webdcr.com tomorrow night from 9-10pm ET! Shoot me an email at Baily.b.deeter.22@dartmouth.edu if you'd like to call in or send a question.






Comments

Baily D said…
We'll see. Fantasy wise the volume was there. I just don't see the efficiency on a per-touch basis and I don't think he'll get enough touches in such a bad offense on a team that'll be trailing a lot. I think Yeldon will be more involved as the Jags have to turn to the passing game playing catch up.

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