Overall NFL Playoff Predictions
As I said in my Wild Card post, this is the first time in a while that we have such a level playing field in the postseason. The New Orleans Saints are probably the Super Bowl favorite, but it wouldn't be crazy to see any one of the 36 possible Super Bowl matchups.
Here's the current playoff field:
AFC:
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. New England Patriots
3. Houston Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Indianapolis Colts
NFC:
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Chicago Bears
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Wild Card Weekend is set for Saturday and Sunday, and my picks are up for those four games. Assuming my picks are correct, that would give us these four matchups for the Divisional Round:
6. Indianapolis at 1. Kansas City
5. Los Angeles Chargers at 2. New England
4. Dallas at 1. New Orleans
3. Chicago at 2. Los Angeles Rams
The way the playoff bracket works is that the lowest remaining seed will always play the highest remaining seed. In other words, if the 6 seed wins, they will automatically play the 1 seed. In the AFC, if the Colts win, they will automatically play Kansas City. If the Eagles beat the Bears, they would then have a date at the Superdome in New Orleans.
Conversely, if the 3 seed were to win the 3-6 matchup, they automatically would play the 2 seed. If Houston escapes the Colts, they would move on to Foxboro to take on New England while the Bears would travel to L.A. to face the Rams.
AFC Picks
My prediction sets up an interesting scenario in the AFC. A Colts-Chiefs matchup, in my opinion, would be the best thing for Kansas City. The Chiefs have a horrible defense that will cost them at some point in the playoffs, but they could win a track meet over the Colts. While Indianapolis has a great coach and quarterback, they have some defensive weaknesses. Likely MVP Patrick Mahomes will tear them apart, leading the Chiefs to the AFC title game over Indy.
This setup would also cause problems for the Patriots, who would have to take on the road warrior Chargers. While New England is lethal at home (8-0 and 4-0 versus playoff teams), the Chargers are 7-0 outside of Los Angeles. The Chargers are the more balanced team, and New England just doesn't look like itself lately. I'd take the Chargers to finally get the better of New England.
This would give us the grudge match between Kansas City and the Chargers, a game I'm sure every football fan is dying to see after Rivers' miraculous comeback in early December. The Chiefs defense will come back to haunt them, and I think this is finally the game where that will happen.
Teams that rely solely on offense (see 2013 Broncos) tend to struggle in the postseason, when the weather gets cold and defenses begin to figure out potent passing attacks. The more balanced team tends to win late-season games, and the Chargers clearly hold that title. In a close one, the Chargers escape Arrowhead Stadium and advance to their first Super Bowl in 24 years.
NFC Picks
My Wild Card picks would have Dallas traveling to New Orleans for a rematch of a game Dallas shockingly won in late November. The Cowboys shut down Drew Brees and the star-studded Saints offense in an ugly 13-10 victory, and there's reason to believe they could repeat that performance.
However, the Saints are simply a different team at home. They're 5-0 in the postseason at home under Sean Payton and Drew Brees, and they'll easily improve to 6-0 here. Dallas is good but not good enough to keep up with the Saints' offensive fireworks, especially in an indoor stadium. The Saints roll past Dallas to the NFC title game.
The Bears-Rams rematch would be fascinating as a matchup between two of the best young coaches in league history. Both rejuvenated their teams and made the NFL so much more exciting to watch, so it would be fitting to see them square off in the postseason.
This is the game I'm most torn about. I believe in Sean McVay and believe the Rams will play much better offensively than they did in their 15-6 defeat in December. However, defense wins championships, and we know for a fact that Jared Goff doesn't want to see the Bears in the playoffs. Chicago would narrowly beat the Rams.
The NFC title game would be a repeat of the 2007 matchup that saw Chicago break away 39-14 to make its first Super Bowl in 22 years. This game would be quite the opposite. The Bears just don't have the offense to compete with the Saints in the Superdome. New Orleans is the more complete team, and its home-field advantage will be huge. The Saints beat the Bears to advance to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl 53
If you've been following me on Twitter, you've heard it all too many times: Saints versus Chargers. It's been my pick since June, and I'm not going to abandon it now. If we do see this matchup, we'd be lucky. Drew Brees versus his old team and old protege, and the two most balanced teams in football on the big stage.
This is a tough matchup to pick, but I think the Saints would have a slight advantage here. They are the more experienced team, and the Chargers don't have the top-tier defense needed to slow New Orleans' plethora of weapons. I'll take New Orleans in what could and should be one of the most exciting Super Bowls in NFL history.
Here's the current playoff field:
AFC:
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. New England Patriots
3. Houston Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Indianapolis Colts
NFC:
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Chicago Bears
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Wild Card Weekend is set for Saturday and Sunday, and my picks are up for those four games. Assuming my picks are correct, that would give us these four matchups for the Divisional Round:
6. Indianapolis at 1. Kansas City
5. Los Angeles Chargers at 2. New England
4. Dallas at 1. New Orleans
3. Chicago at 2. Los Angeles Rams
The way the playoff bracket works is that the lowest remaining seed will always play the highest remaining seed. In other words, if the 6 seed wins, they will automatically play the 1 seed. In the AFC, if the Colts win, they will automatically play Kansas City. If the Eagles beat the Bears, they would then have a date at the Superdome in New Orleans.
Conversely, if the 3 seed were to win the 3-6 matchup, they automatically would play the 2 seed. If Houston escapes the Colts, they would move on to Foxboro to take on New England while the Bears would travel to L.A. to face the Rams.
AFC Picks
My prediction sets up an interesting scenario in the AFC. A Colts-Chiefs matchup, in my opinion, would be the best thing for Kansas City. The Chiefs have a horrible defense that will cost them at some point in the playoffs, but they could win a track meet over the Colts. While Indianapolis has a great coach and quarterback, they have some defensive weaknesses. Likely MVP Patrick Mahomes will tear them apart, leading the Chiefs to the AFC title game over Indy.
This setup would also cause problems for the Patriots, who would have to take on the road warrior Chargers. While New England is lethal at home (8-0 and 4-0 versus playoff teams), the Chargers are 7-0 outside of Los Angeles. The Chargers are the more balanced team, and New England just doesn't look like itself lately. I'd take the Chargers to finally get the better of New England.
This would give us the grudge match between Kansas City and the Chargers, a game I'm sure every football fan is dying to see after Rivers' miraculous comeback in early December. The Chiefs defense will come back to haunt them, and I think this is finally the game where that will happen.
Teams that rely solely on offense (see 2013 Broncos) tend to struggle in the postseason, when the weather gets cold and defenses begin to figure out potent passing attacks. The more balanced team tends to win late-season games, and the Chargers clearly hold that title. In a close one, the Chargers escape Arrowhead Stadium and advance to their first Super Bowl in 24 years.
NFC Picks
My Wild Card picks would have Dallas traveling to New Orleans for a rematch of a game Dallas shockingly won in late November. The Cowboys shut down Drew Brees and the star-studded Saints offense in an ugly 13-10 victory, and there's reason to believe they could repeat that performance.
However, the Saints are simply a different team at home. They're 5-0 in the postseason at home under Sean Payton and Drew Brees, and they'll easily improve to 6-0 here. Dallas is good but not good enough to keep up with the Saints' offensive fireworks, especially in an indoor stadium. The Saints roll past Dallas to the NFC title game.
The Bears-Rams rematch would be fascinating as a matchup between two of the best young coaches in league history. Both rejuvenated their teams and made the NFL so much more exciting to watch, so it would be fitting to see them square off in the postseason.
This is the game I'm most torn about. I believe in Sean McVay and believe the Rams will play much better offensively than they did in their 15-6 defeat in December. However, defense wins championships, and we know for a fact that Jared Goff doesn't want to see the Bears in the playoffs. Chicago would narrowly beat the Rams.
The NFC title game would be a repeat of the 2007 matchup that saw Chicago break away 39-14 to make its first Super Bowl in 22 years. This game would be quite the opposite. The Bears just don't have the offense to compete with the Saints in the Superdome. New Orleans is the more complete team, and its home-field advantage will be huge. The Saints beat the Bears to advance to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl 53
If you've been following me on Twitter, you've heard it all too many times: Saints versus Chargers. It's been my pick since June, and I'm not going to abandon it now. If we do see this matchup, we'd be lucky. Drew Brees versus his old team and old protege, and the two most balanced teams in football on the big stage.
This is a tough matchup to pick, but I think the Saints would have a slight advantage here. They are the more experienced team, and the Chargers don't have the top-tier defense needed to slow New Orleans' plethora of weapons. I'll take New Orleans in what could and should be one of the most exciting Super Bowls in NFL history.
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