Week 13 Recap
I'm a little salty as I write this thanks to a series of unfortunate events causing me to miss the fantasy football playoffs, but I'll try to put my bias aside and recap an exciting week of football. The best game of the week came on Sunday night, with three consecutive offsides penalties on the Steelers (three!) gifting the Los Angeles Chargers a key AFC victory.
With that win, the Chargers, at 9-3, are very likely to make the postseason, although they still have tough games ahead against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Broncos. If they lose all three, they could find themselves on the outside looking in. But this win was huge for Los Angeles, as Philip Rivers stepped up in Melvin Gordon's absence to deliver a critical victory.
The Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans all won, with New England looking particularly sharp on defense against Kirk Cousins and the mediocre Minnesota Vikings. As it stands, New England and Houston are threats to take the top seed in the AFC. The Texans are on a remarkable nine-game winning streak, and the Patriots looked sharp on both sides of the ball in their 24-10 win over Minnesota.
AFC Playoff Picture:
1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Pittsburgh
5. LA Chargers
6. Baltimore
With a 26-16 win over Atlanta, the Ravens improved to 7-5 and are now serious threats to win the AFC North. Pittsburgh has lost two straight games and still has to face the Saints and the Patriots later in the season. Baltimore has to play the Chargers and Chiefs, but if the Steelers lose one more game than the Ravens, Baltimore could find itself as the AFC North champions.
Don't look now, but the 6-6 Denver Broncos also could find themselves in the mix. I was fortunate enough to attend Denver's 24-10 victory over Cincinnati, and the Broncos run game looked sharp as ever. Phillip Lindsay ran 19 times for 157 yards, clearly establishing himself as Denver's top running back.
Case Keenum was mediocre in throwing for 151 yards, but Denver is finally realizing that running the ball is its best chance of success. Also, Courtland Sutton had 85 of those receiving yards, which was absolutely huge for Denver. While the Broncos secondary is bad, if they beat the 49ers, Browns and Raiders as they should, they would find themselves at 9-6 with a chance to beat the Chargers at home to make the playoffs.
Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Miami are technically still in the mix, and the Titans have a chance as they also have an easy schedule. However, all of these teams have significant flaws that will most likely prevent them from making a run. The Colts are probably the biggest threat even after getting shut out (!) by Jacksonville. However, they play the formidable Texans next week, which could end their season.
My Final Playoff Prediction
1. Kansas City
2. Houston
3. New England
4. Pittsburgh
5. LA Chargers
6. Denver
In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys did the impossible by knocking off the New Orleans Saints. Now 10-2, the Saints will need a Rams loss to earn home-field advantage in the NFC. The Rams play the Bears and Eagles in the next two weeks, and I expect them to lose one of those games. However, they looked solid in a 30-16 win over Detroit, as Todd Gurley ran for 130 yards and two touchdowns to avoid a trap game.
Surprisingly, the Chicago Bears, without Mitchell Trubisky, lost to the Giants in overtime. The Bears are still poised to win the NFC North at 8-4, but the loss gives them virtually no chance of earning a first-round bye. With the Vikings and Green Bay Packers losing (and firing coach Mike McCarthy), it still looks like playoff football will come to the Windy City.
The Cowboys, with a stout defense that held the mighty Saints to just 10 points, are clearly the best team in the NFC East. However, the Eagles and Redskins are still in the NFC East and the Wild Card mix with both the Panthers and Vikings losing this weekend. The NFC doesn't look as sharp as we might have thought, and we could end up seeing a mediocre team make the postseason.
While I was surprised to see Drew Brees and company struggle in Dallas, the Saints are still my clear-cut Super Bowl pick. In fact, I think this loss was good for them; they don't have to worry about extending their win streak anymore and can just focus on winning a championship. Even if the Rams get the first-round bye, my money is still on New Orleans, who has a defense that the Rams don't, to win the conference.
Current NFC Playoff Picture
1. LA Rams
2. New Orleans
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Seattle
6. Washington/Minnesota
With a 43-16 thrashing of the 49ers, the Seahawks are looking like the favorite to earn the fifth seed and a date at Cowboys Stadium (or Lincoln Financial Field or FedEx Field). Russell Wilson is playing efficiently and the offensive line is somehow playing incredibly, giving Seattle one of the best running games in all of football. The Seahawks are the best of the rest in the NFC, and they could make some noise. If they get a third chance to play the Rams, I wouldn't be surprised to see Russell Wilson and company advance...
Carolina lost its fourth straight game, Minnesota was clearly overmatched by the Patriots, Washington lost its starting quarterback, Philadelphia is a mess, and Green Bay, Atlanta and Tampa Bay are essentially out of the picture at this point. One of these teams, however, has to make the postseason. I think it will end up being Minnesota, but I don't believe in any of them except the Eagles if they can recapture their Super Bowl form. I think Minnesota will end up claiming the final spot, but if Philadelphia does, it would be much more dangerous.
Looking at this playoff picture, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams lose in the Divisional Round. Teams without a defense don't tend to do well in the playoffs, and the Rams are currently looking at a potential matchup with Dallas, who has a physical, confident defense. If Dallas travels to Los Angeles for the second round, my money would be on Jerry Jones' bunch to brutalize the vaunted Rams offense and eliminate Sean McVay's squad.
Conference Championship Predictions: Chargers over Patriots and Saints over Cowboys
Super Bowl Prediction: Saints over Chargers
I'm tempted to switch my pick from the Chargers after their defense struggled last night. However, I like the way the matchups are working out for them right now. They would play at Pittsburgh, at Kansas City, and at New England/Houston the way the picture looks right now. I expect them to beat both the Steelers and Chiefs (who gave up 33 points to Oakland!), although I think they would have trouble against Houston and New England. But at that point, after two consecutive road wins, the Chargers would have to get the job done and advance. I'm sticking with my preseason prediction!
With that win, the Chargers, at 9-3, are very likely to make the postseason, although they still have tough games ahead against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Broncos. If they lose all three, they could find themselves on the outside looking in. But this win was huge for Los Angeles, as Philip Rivers stepped up in Melvin Gordon's absence to deliver a critical victory.
The Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans all won, with New England looking particularly sharp on defense against Kirk Cousins and the mediocre Minnesota Vikings. As it stands, New England and Houston are threats to take the top seed in the AFC. The Texans are on a remarkable nine-game winning streak, and the Patriots looked sharp on both sides of the ball in their 24-10 win over Minnesota.
AFC Playoff Picture:
1. Kansas City
2. New England
3. Houston
4. Pittsburgh
5. LA Chargers
6. Baltimore
With a 26-16 win over Atlanta, the Ravens improved to 7-5 and are now serious threats to win the AFC North. Pittsburgh has lost two straight games and still has to face the Saints and the Patriots later in the season. Baltimore has to play the Chargers and Chiefs, but if the Steelers lose one more game than the Ravens, Baltimore could find itself as the AFC North champions.
Don't look now, but the 6-6 Denver Broncos also could find themselves in the mix. I was fortunate enough to attend Denver's 24-10 victory over Cincinnati, and the Broncos run game looked sharp as ever. Phillip Lindsay ran 19 times for 157 yards, clearly establishing himself as Denver's top running back.
Case Keenum was mediocre in throwing for 151 yards, but Denver is finally realizing that running the ball is its best chance of success. Also, Courtland Sutton had 85 of those receiving yards, which was absolutely huge for Denver. While the Broncos secondary is bad, if they beat the 49ers, Browns and Raiders as they should, they would find themselves at 9-6 with a chance to beat the Chargers at home to make the playoffs.
Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Miami are technically still in the mix, and the Titans have a chance as they also have an easy schedule. However, all of these teams have significant flaws that will most likely prevent them from making a run. The Colts are probably the biggest threat even after getting shut out (!) by Jacksonville. However, they play the formidable Texans next week, which could end their season.
My Final Playoff Prediction
1. Kansas City
2. Houston
3. New England
4. Pittsburgh
5. LA Chargers
6. Denver
In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys did the impossible by knocking off the New Orleans Saints. Now 10-2, the Saints will need a Rams loss to earn home-field advantage in the NFC. The Rams play the Bears and Eagles in the next two weeks, and I expect them to lose one of those games. However, they looked solid in a 30-16 win over Detroit, as Todd Gurley ran for 130 yards and two touchdowns to avoid a trap game.
Surprisingly, the Chicago Bears, without Mitchell Trubisky, lost to the Giants in overtime. The Bears are still poised to win the NFC North at 8-4, but the loss gives them virtually no chance of earning a first-round bye. With the Vikings and Green Bay Packers losing (and firing coach Mike McCarthy), it still looks like playoff football will come to the Windy City.
The Cowboys, with a stout defense that held the mighty Saints to just 10 points, are clearly the best team in the NFC East. However, the Eagles and Redskins are still in the NFC East and the Wild Card mix with both the Panthers and Vikings losing this weekend. The NFC doesn't look as sharp as we might have thought, and we could end up seeing a mediocre team make the postseason.
While I was surprised to see Drew Brees and company struggle in Dallas, the Saints are still my clear-cut Super Bowl pick. In fact, I think this loss was good for them; they don't have to worry about extending their win streak anymore and can just focus on winning a championship. Even if the Rams get the first-round bye, my money is still on New Orleans, who has a defense that the Rams don't, to win the conference.
Current NFC Playoff Picture
1. LA Rams
2. New Orleans
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Seattle
6. Washington/Minnesota
With a 43-16 thrashing of the 49ers, the Seahawks are looking like the favorite to earn the fifth seed and a date at Cowboys Stadium (or Lincoln Financial Field or FedEx Field). Russell Wilson is playing efficiently and the offensive line is somehow playing incredibly, giving Seattle one of the best running games in all of football. The Seahawks are the best of the rest in the NFC, and they could make some noise. If they get a third chance to play the Rams, I wouldn't be surprised to see Russell Wilson and company advance...
Carolina lost its fourth straight game, Minnesota was clearly overmatched by the Patriots, Washington lost its starting quarterback, Philadelphia is a mess, and Green Bay, Atlanta and Tampa Bay are essentially out of the picture at this point. One of these teams, however, has to make the postseason. I think it will end up being Minnesota, but I don't believe in any of them except the Eagles if they can recapture their Super Bowl form. I think Minnesota will end up claiming the final spot, but if Philadelphia does, it would be much more dangerous.
Looking at this playoff picture, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams lose in the Divisional Round. Teams without a defense don't tend to do well in the playoffs, and the Rams are currently looking at a potential matchup with Dallas, who has a physical, confident defense. If Dallas travels to Los Angeles for the second round, my money would be on Jerry Jones' bunch to brutalize the vaunted Rams offense and eliminate Sean McVay's squad.
Conference Championship Predictions: Chargers over Patriots and Saints over Cowboys
Super Bowl Prediction: Saints over Chargers
I'm tempted to switch my pick from the Chargers after their defense struggled last night. However, I like the way the matchups are working out for them right now. They would play at Pittsburgh, at Kansas City, and at New England/Houston the way the picture looks right now. I expect them to beat both the Steelers and Chiefs (who gave up 33 points to Oakland!), although I think they would have trouble against Houston and New England. But at that point, after two consecutive road wins, the Chargers would have to get the job done and advance. I'm sticking with my preseason prediction!
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